Friday, October 12, 2012

Joe Biden loses second debate for the Democrats

These were the results from a CNN poll following last night's Vice-Presidential debate.

Who won the debate? (all voters) Ryan 48 Biden 44 (R +4)

Who won the debate? (uncommitted voters) Ryan 50 Biden 31 (R+19)

Who better expressed himself? Ryan 50 Biden 41 (R +9)

Who was more likable? Ryan 53 Biden 43 (R +10)

Which candidate made you more likely to support their ticket? Ryan 28 Biden 21 (R +7)

The sample was taken of registered voters- 33% were Republicans, 31% Democrats, 34% Independents. CNN apologist Wolf Blitzer claimed that the poll oversampled Republicans but that dog don't hunt. If anything, the 2 point GOP advantage actually under sampled Republicans and slightly over sampled Independents. If the poll were screened for likely voters, the GOP advantage would be far more pronounced.

The last 4 data points above are the most important. The more persuadable the voter, the more likely they were to declare Ryan the winner. This is really dramatic considering the softness of support for the Obama/Biden ticket. Among the most important voters- previously uncommitted- Ryan won the debate by 19 percentages points, calling Blitzer to, incredibly, call it a draw.

A draw? Since when is 50-31 a draw? Among all voters, Romney/Ryan came out +7 in who are you more likely to vote for? Since when is +7 a draw?

Now let's look at the debate itself. Biden sneered and derisively laughed through the entire debate and interrupted Ryan more than 80 times. Where was the moderator? Biden did not help his ticket. He came across as arrogant, condescending and incoherent. Ryan was polite, concise and informative. In fact, some of the commentators complained that he gave too many specifics!

A clear win for Romney/Ryan on both style and substance. Do not listen to to spinners who say it won't move the poll numbers. They know better.
Congrats to the GOP on this devastating ad.

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